This started as a simple question in a gas station parking lot: if AI replaces a meaningful percentage of jobs, what actually happens to the system? Not in theory but mechanically. Who’s earning, who’s spending, and how does that ripple through everything else? The initial answer I got was the standard one: things adapt like they always have. That didn’t sit right, so I pushed on it.
By the time I got home, that question had turned into a full probabilistic model and white paper. Instead of opinions, it uses data, interval-based assumptions, and Monte Carlo simulation to map a range of outcomes, from mild disruption to severe and even catastrophic scenarios. It’s not a prediction, and it’s not alarmist. It’s just a structured way to stress-test the assumptions most people are making right now. You can download the full paper below if you want to see how the math actually plays out.
AI-Driven Economic Displacement,Frontier Model Risk, and Systemic Stability
